SBI Report Had Clues To Possible Currency Pullback In March

Centre’s decision to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes may have taken many by surprise but back in March, 2016, State Bank of India’s research report ‘SBI Ecowatch’ had a clear pointer to the possibility of ‘demonetisation’ being on the anvil.

The report, authored by SBI’s chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh and his team, had cited an ‘unusual rise’ in currency with public, estimated to have risen 25 per cent year-on-year in April-January of 2015-16 fiscal. “Currency with public grew by 25 per cent during the period April-January FY16 as against corresponding period last year. Earlier to that, currency with public grew by 57.2 per cent during the same period in FY11. Even the YoY growth in currency with public increased by 12.3 per cent as of Jan 2016. This recent growth in currency with public is quite puzzling as none of the indicators validates this growth as nominal growth has collapsed,” the report stated.

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